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Cheng Zhiyun February 15 , 2008, from the China Foreign Exchange Trade Center data show that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1763 and then a new high since the foreign exchange reform, than the beginning of the appreciation of about 1.7%; the whole of 2007, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar median price appreciation of about 6% on. There is no doubt that the yuan is speeding up. Nevertheless, the industry expectations for the appreciation of the RMB is not optimistic. This reporter has learned, along with the domestic economy is expected of different views on the future trend of the industry for 2008, the trend of the RMB exchange rate expectations are not small differences. The US economy into recession? In fact, now generally believed that the biggest uncertainty comes from the outside – the US economy currently stands at a crossroads. Round of emergency interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve shocked the market, Ed Hardy Womens Tops , the mainstream market earlier expected the Fed will cut interest rates this week regular meeting of 50 or 75 basis points. The performance of the actual situation may be worse. Bank of China, a report showed the second half of 2007 intensified the US subprime mortgage bond issue has not died down trend. And if the federal funds rate drop not enough to support the sub-prime mortgage borrowers continue to perform the repayment, the credit crisis will directly harm the American consumer, making US imports substantially reduced. As the United States remains the world major manufactured products final consumption, the decline in demand once the United States, the world manufactured goods relative surplus supply situation will occur, the product prices is inevitable. If this phenomenon occurs, it will cause the whole world into a state of deflation. Currently, concerns about the US economy has been directly reflects the dollar continues to fall sharply. Bank of China released earlier, “RMB 2007 Market Report” forecasts that if the US successfully tide over the difficulties, the Chinese economy will continue to maintain the partial thermal state. In response to the overall inflation may come, first half of 2008 is expected to speed the yuan appreciate against the dollar over the first half of 2007, the appreciation rate. While in the second half, China export growth will decline, foreign trade surplus decreased growth rate, price levels began to drop the chain, beginning in the fourth quarter, the central bank may cut interest rates and US interest rate would rise again. Report, if the advent of global deflation in 2008, is expected in 2008, the third or fourth quarter impact of the Chinese economy, domestic corporate profits will be significantly reduced, the domestic investment rate of return will be a significant decline in capital outflow may be fast, the pressure of RMB appreciation will greatly reduce or even possible devaluation. However, because China has huge foreign exchange reserves , devaluation of the renminbi may not actually occur. Can an exception but in fact the RMB assets, wholesale cheap Chloe handbag , there are many agencies believe that China, as a fast-growing emerging economies, omega watches , from the US subprime crisis relatively very far, the RMB assets of the future will be the international capital market that could be less affected safe haven. Shun securities a person that is different from the past since 2003, China largest trade surplus with the EU has changed from the United States, in part because the euro appreciation, in part because the European economic recovery. From the slowdown in US demand for Chinese exports as part of industries and enterprises may constitute a very significant impact , but the total level of economic growth from the slowdown in demand for foreign exchange effects can be completely managed, can hedge not a very big problem. Construction Bank, one who is optimistic that, in 2008, the RMB against the US dollar will not only faster appreciation of the euro, Japanese yen, also, or will appreciate the yuan exchange rate fluctuations and further enhance two-way. The person is expected in 2008, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, or 7.5%, to the end of 2008 reached 6.75 yuan / dollar or so, the first half of the yuan rise faster in the fourth quarter slowed down the pace of renminbi appreciation. Bank of China, a more cautious people will behave. He told reporters that if the exchange rate policy continue to improve the rate of currency appreciation to curb inflation, the direction of nominal effective exchange rate is expected in 2008 will rise 8% -12%, far exceeding the rate of 1.6% in 2007. RMB appreciation for the negative impact of export profits will be far more than in 2007, the exchange rate policy needs to maintain rapid decline for the export of the domestic economy to make rapid cooling of the alert.